When will the epidemic return to zero


On the evening of “news 1 + 1”, Bai Yansong invited Xiang nijuan, researcher of the emergency center of China CDC, and Shao Xinyu, academician of Chinese Academy of engineering and Secretary of the Party committee of Huazhong University of science and technology, to interpret the latest epidemic situation.
Now maybe one patient can’t spread to another
Is the novel coronavirus pneumonia decreasing? According to the early investigation and analysis of some known data, one patient can basically spread 2 to 3 people in the early stage. Now, according to the analysis of the disease curve, it can be said that up to now, no one patient can spread more than one patient, because if the transmission index is the same as before In other words, the current situation of the epidemic situation is not like the present downward trend. Therefore, the current basic transmission index, that is, the number of patients who can transmit, has declined compared with the initial stage.
The people the patient contacted two days before the onset of the disease are now close contacts
For the determination of close contacts, researchers from the emergency center of China CDC introduced to nijuan that the original determination of close contacts was based on the patient’s symptoms, and the close contacts needed 14 days of medical observation. Now there is a change, and (now) it is necessary to determine the contact person of the patient two days before the onset of the disease. The contact person of the two days also As a close contact, he also needs 14 days of medical observation, which is a major change in the determination of the secret connection at present.
When will the epidemic return to zero?
As for when the epidemic situation concerned by the outside world will decline and return to zero, researchers from the emergency center of China CDC introduced to nijuan that it needs very accurate data support. Taking Wuhan as an example, the biggest difficulty so far is that the number of new cases per day is relatively large, the workload per day will be large, and the workload of close contact determination will also be large. First of all, it is a workload problem, and not only to complete such workload, but also to have a high quality of work, because only this kind of high-quality data can As a particularly accurate basis for our decisions.
5 prisons in 3 provinces are in epidemic situation. Do you want to transfer to prison?
Bai Yansong: there are 5 prisons in 3 provinces with epidemic situation today. Will they also go to the prison for transfer after that? What should be transferred?
Xiang nijuan: first of all, we need to conduct case investigation, sort out the epidemiological relationship between cases, and find out the transmission chain. For the epidemic situation in prison, we should pay more attention to the prevention and control in the future: standardize the management of personnel in and out of the prison, minimize the introduction of infectious sources; do a good job in monitoring the abnormalities of personnel in the prison, find out that the patients are isolated and treated in time; strengthen the ventilation and daily disinfection in the prison, etc.