Last night, CCTV news channel “news 1 + 1”, host Bai Yansong connected with Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiology expert of China CDC, to interpret the latest epidemic situation.
Wu Zunyou said that in the next week, the reported cases in Beijing may be cleared. This judgment is mainly based on the timely prevention and control measures taken by Beijing. The cases discovered later mainly come from the isolators at the centralized isolation points, accounting for about 90%. Some of these people were found by nucleic acid screening, some by close contact tracking. Novel coronavirus pneumonia has the longest incubation period of 14 days. The average duration of the disease was from 4 days to 13 days. Judging from the time, the next seven days or so, the epidemic situation in Beijing will be cleared.
When will Beijing adjust its response level?
Wu Zunyou said that after the first clearance, there will be sporadic cases. When the sporadic cases are cleared again, it can be judged that the epidemic situation has been completely controlled in three to four weeks. Adjusting the response level also requires expert and multi department analysis to make decisions. “The closer we get to the final victory, the more we have to bite our teeth and not relax. All prevention and control measures have been strengthened as before, even more carefully than before,” he said
Millions of people are diagnosed as a disaster facing mankind
Wu Zunyou said that the total number of confirmed cases in the world has exceeded 10 million, and the cumulative number of deaths has reached 500000. The diagnosis of millions of people shows that human beings are facing the disaster of new epidemic situation. At present, it has not reached the peak, and it will rise in the future. It’s still in the first wave of the global epidemic. NCV is the most intractable virus encountered by human beings, regardless of gender, age, region, winter and summer. As long as the prevention and control measures are relaxed, it may revive at any time.
From 10 million to 20 million cases worldwide, it will be shorter
Judging from the current global prevention and control efforts, most countries in the world have not effectively controlled the epidemic except China and a few countries. In terms of prevention and control measures and the number of basic cases, it will take less time from 10 million to 20 million. Some countries have been out of control, and this situation is getting worse and worse. We must respect science, rely on science, and implement scientific prevention and control measures. Some countries violate science and cannot reverse the rising trend of epidemic situation in a short time.
Vaccines may not be everything
Wu Zunyou introduced that the outside world placed high hopes on the vaccine. Prevention and control of novel coronavirus pneumonia is particularly difficult. Traditional measures can not establish immune barriers, but only isolate patients from healthy people and block transmission. With the increasing awareness of the new coronavirus, it is necessary to remind that the vaccine may not be universal, or that the vaccine can not provide lifelong immunity.
Based on the following considerations, first, no vaccine has been developed for coronavirus. Second, other coronaviruses, such as SARS, Middle East respiratory syndrome and other coronaviruses, can not produce long-term immune protection after human infection, and the protection effect usually lasts from 6 months to 1 year. The prevention of infectious diseases with vaccines is based on immunity after natural infection. All vaccines imitate the natural immunity of human body. If human beings are infected with new coronavirus and can not produce long-term immunity, it is less likely to expect the vaccine to produce long-term immunity. But one thing, if you can produce immunity for a certain period of time, you need to be vaccinated regularly.
The virus doesn’t mutate. It’s a good sign
Wu Zunyou said that from the global monitoring situation, the virus did not mutate, which is a good sign. Good news for vaccine research. If the virus mutates quickly, it is more difficult to develop a vaccine.